OVC still trying to leap playoff hurdle
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/26/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is so much for cornerback CJ James to bask in regarding Eastern Illinois' football 2009 season.
From playing before 104,000 fans at Penn State to winning on the road at rival Jacksonville State to having two four-game winning streaks to capturing the Ohio Valley Conference championship, the Panthers have a lot to remember.
Yet, no matter what, James' mind always flashes to the way EIU was whipped at then-No. 1 Southern Illinois in the first round of the FCS playoffs. He felt the Panthers let the OVC down, and, just as importantly, let their senior class down.
"When you look at that game, it looked like we weren't supposed to be there. We didn't really show any fight from looking at the score," James still says with grimace.
Now a senior himself, James plans a different outcome for this postseason.
"No one wants to leave anything on a bad note. This being my senior year, I wouldn't want to leave on a bad note," he said.
The Big South and the Northeast Conference are embracing the fact their 2010 champions will have automatic bids for the first time, but the OVC seemingly needs a different outcome in the postseason more than anybody else. Over the last nine seasons, OVC teams are 0-12 in the playoffs, and the last one to win in the postseason - Western Kentucky in 2000 - isn't even in the conference anymore.
OVC coaches aren't shying away from the bad history. In fact, as the playoffs expand from 16 to 20 teams, and two of the four additional teams gain at-large berths, they believe their conference could start to gain multiple berths on a consistent basis again. If and when that happens, they're the first to say their teams have to raise their level of play.
If more than the OVC champion extends their season to Thanksgiving weekend and beyond, the pair could be Jacksonville State and Eastern Illinois, who were picked first and second, respectively, in the OVC's preseason poll released today at the conference football media day at LP Field, home of the Tennessee Titans. Eastern Kentucky, which won conference titles in 2007 and '08, isn't far behind with its talent. Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State, perhaps the dark horse team in the race, also drew first-team votes in the 18-voter poll.
"We (the OVC) haven't been good enough," Eastern Kentucky coach Dean Hood said matter-of-factly. "We won the conference championship in 2008 and went and played at Richmond and they were a lot better football team than us.
"What I like about our league is (when) Eastern Illinois got in (last) year, I'm cheering for Eastern Illinois, I'm cheering for (coach) Bob Spoo. And I'm sure the year before when we got in it, no matter what happens on the field in our game, I guarantee you every single coach and player was cheering for us. We have a camaraderie in this league, wanting us to win a playoff game. We haven't been good enough; that's the bottom line."
"We along with everyone else from the OVC that's been in the first round have not serviced our conference very well," said Spoo, whose program has lost nine straight first-round games since 1995. "If we had won a couple of those games and advanced, I think people would have a little more respect, so to speak, for the OVC. We need to be able to advance; we've got to have a strong showing. Maybe it would be upsetting some of these (Division) I-A teams (now FBS) that we're playing along the way to get our rankings up high initially, playing good, solid football and gaining the respect of the country a little more."
That the OVC's postseason history dates to Murray State's 21-21 tie with Sul Ross State in the 1948 Tangerine Bowl underscores the conference's snake-bitten ways. Eastern Kentucky won FCS (then known as Division I-AA) championships in 1979 and '82, but the OVC has been playing catch-up ever since.
Coaches identify the need for a greater commitment, both financially and philosophically, to improve success. The resources put into the $47 million renovation at Jacksonville State's Burgess-Snow Field, which the Gamecocks will debut on Sept. 11 against Chattanooga, is a shining example that should give JSU both a decided advantage in recruiting and help it close the gap against top programs nationally.
"The CAA (Colonial Athletic Association) has set the bar," Hood said. "It's the SEC of FCS football right now.
"We've got to get as-good players and improve our program and get better and be like the CAA. That's a strong conference right now."
It's not surprising the head coaches and sports information directors from all nine OVC schools installed Jacksonville State as the preseason favorite. The Gamecocks would have won their conference title last season had it not been ineligible because of APR (academic progress rate) sanctions, and they have a 43-13 conference record that is best since they joined the OVC for the 2003 season.
But there's hope around the conference because their Ryan Perriloux-generated offense of a year ago is breaking in a new starting quarterback, though one- time Georgia Tech player Marquis Ivory should handle the transition. Top rushers Calvin Middleton and Jamal Young return to give the offense some juice, and senior T.J. Heath is one of the FCS' top cornerbacks. The Gamecocks led the conference in both scoring offense and defense last season.
EIU is nipping at the Gamecocks' heels, however. Not only have James and his teammates been motivated by last season's playoff demise, but they feature one of Spoo's more experienced teams. Mon Williams hopes to run wild behind a veteran offensive line, while defensively all four starting linebackers as well as James and fellow cornerback Rashad Haynes bolster the unit.
"I know Bob knows they can go play with anybody and I know we can go play with anybody," said Jacksonville State coach Jack Crowe. "Obviously some people out there that are making some decisions, I don't think they get it. I think there's extremely regional biases in FCS football - extremely regional biases. And I think sometimes when things are done with organizations that really don't have insight ... Not just us, but I think this whole league, I don't think we've gotten the credit that we deserve."
Eastern Kentucky features quarterback T.J. Pryor, the 2009 OVC Freshman of the Year, who might be the best signal-caller in the OVC, although the preseason first-team distinction went to junior Matt Scheible of Southeast Missouri. Consistent play at the position will go a long way this season because the OVC doesn't bring back a lot of top QBs.
The conference is so unpredictable that the preseason favorite in six of the last seven seasons has not gone on to win the title. Adding to the wacky ways, last season's two first-team running backs, Terrence Holt and Ryan White, played for an Austin Peay squad that finished 4-7. Both are back this season.
The OVC's new coaches are Chris Hatcher at Murray State, who arrives after three years of subpar records at Georgia Southern, and Rod Reed, who was elevated from the defensive coordinator's position at Tennessee State, his alma mater.
"You talk about some quality teams in the league," Reed said. "You can't just go down and say, 'OK, we can expect to win this one, we can expect to ...' There are quality coaches in this league, like Jacksonville State, Coach Crowe. You've just got to go out and play hard week in and week out."
The season kicks off on Sept. 4 for OVC teams, and they will be hard-pressed to have a good overall record by the end of that day. Among the games, Eastern Illinois visits Iowa, Jacksonville State goes to Ole Miss, UT Martin travels to Tennessee, Tennessee Tech is at Arkansas, Murray State visits Kent State, Southeast Missouri goes to Ball State, even Eastern Kentucky faces a difficult road test within the FCS, at Missouri State.
That just might be the day the OVC is looking for. They could parlay some strong performances - maybe not wins - into a little more respect nationally. It could lead up to a deep title race and a then November to remember in the FCS playoffs.
At least that's what the OVC is pointing toward in 2010.
"I can sit here and tell you that our league is very competitive and it's better than it's ever been," Spoo said. "Do we match up across the country nationwide with other teams that are trying to get in there? That I don't know. But I sure hope that changes."
"The best thing we can do is send a couple teams to the playoffs," Crowe said, "and we've got to win some games."
OVC PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Sports Information Directors)
1. Jacksonville State (11 first-place votes), 120 points; 2. Eastern Illinois (4), 114; 3. Eastern Kentucky (1), 102; 4. Tennessee Tech (1), 78; 5. Tennessee State (1), 70; 6. UT Martin, 59; 7. (tie) Austin Peay, 38; 7. (tie) Southeast Missouri, 38; 9. Murray State, 29
PRESEASON OVC ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offensive Player of the Year - Terrence Holt, RB/KR, Austin Peay; Defensive Player of the Year - Josh Bey, LB, UT Martin
Offense
QB- Matt Scheible, Southeast Missouri; RB- Ryan White, Austin Peay; Terrence Holt, Austin Peay. WR- Tim Benford, Tennessee Tech; Marcus Harris, Murray State. TE- Cory Freeman, Jacksonville State. C- Willie Henderson, Eastern Illinois. G- Tylor Chambers, Jacksonville State; Slade Adams, Tennessee Tech. T- Curt Porter, Jacksonville State; Malcolm Jones, Tennessee Tech
Defense
DL- Andrew Soucy, Eastern Kentucky; Perry Burge, Eastern Illinois; J.J. Sanchez, Southeast Missouri; Donte'e Nicholls, Tennessee State. LB- Josh Bey, UT Martin; Jordan Dalrymple, Eastern Kentucky; Nick Nasti, Eastern Illinois. DB- Eugene Clifford, Tennessee State; T.J. Heath, Jacksonville State; CJ James, Eastern Illinois; Jeremy Caldwell, Eastern Kentucky
Specialists
PK- Kienan Cullen, Murray State. P- Kienan Cullen, Murray State. RS- Terrence Holt, Austin Peay
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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