Football Betting

NL Central: Pirates' purge won't be like years past

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The final few days of July are almost always antsy ones for veteran players of the Pittsburgh Pirates, not to mention an absolute nightmare for the organization's media relations staff, equipment managers and clubhouse attendants.

For once, the Pirates won't be using the upcoming non-waiver trade deadline as a midseason roster overhaul designed to shed salary and collect cheaper and younger personnel. While the team is still likely to make a few cost-cutting moves over the next couple of days, this year's makeover shouldn't resemble some of the infamous fire sales Pittsburgh has held in previous years.

Although it has yet to reflect in the overall results, the Pirates have finally been able to assemble a promising young core that's at least offered a glimmer of hope to a franchise in search of its first winning season since 1992. With prospects such as Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata all holding their own at the major-league level, plus another wave of talent developing in a much-improved farm system, there's far less of a need for a dramatic renovation such as last year, when general manager Neal Huntington shipped off five members (outfielders Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan, first baseman Adam LaRoche, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, shortstop Jack Wilson) of the Opening Day lineup between June 3 and the July 31 deadline.

"This year, we've got some guys that we're not real motivated to move," general manager Neal Huntington told pirates.com on Monday. "If we get a good baseball trade, then we'll make it. But we're beyond the prospect-collection mode, and we're trying to move forward with this group."

Huntington still has a few chips he may be willing to part with in an effort to further accelerate Pittsburgh's ever-rebuilding process. Octavio Dotel has done a capable job as the team's closer and could intrigue contenders seeking seasoned bullpen help, as may fellow relievers Javier Lopez and D.J. Carrasco. Outfielder Ryan Church and infielder Bobby Crosby, both free agents at season's end, will likely draw some interest as well from clubs looking to fortify their bench.

OSWALT GONE, BERKMAN NEXT FOR ASTROS?

The Houston Astros dealt away one of the franchise's most successful pitchers with Thursday's trade of ace Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies. There's speculation that one of the team's most accomplished hitters may be on the move as well.

FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported on Thursday that the Astros have begun to field offers for longtime first baseman Lance Berkman and will consider trading the five-time All-Star, who's probably headed to free agency in 2011 with an expensive $15 million team option looming. The 34-year-old is hitting just .245 this season but has turned it on of late, going 5-for-10 with five RBI in Houston's just-completed three-game series with the Chicago Cubs and slugging a grand slam to key Tuesday's 6-1 win.

The Astros appear more willing to part with Berkman, a native Texan who's spent his entire 12-year career in Houston, after acquiring highly-regarded first-base prospect Brett Wallace Thursday as an offshoot of the Oswalt swap. The club sent minor league outfielder Anthony Gose, part of the package the Phillies sent for Oswalt's services, to Toronto to obtain Wallace, a former first-round pick of St. Louis who was batting .301 with 18 homers and 61 RBI for the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas.

Wallace, incidentally, has now been traded three times in deals involving marquee players. The 23-year-old was one of three players sent by the Cardinals to Oakland last July for All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday, then moved to Toronto this past winter in the elaborate four-team transaction that also involved former Cy Young Award winners Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

Houston also received starting pitcher and 2009 National League Rookie of the Year runner-up J.A. Happ from the Phillies and will start the left-hander in Oswalt's originally-scheduled spot when the Astros began a home series with Milwaukee on Friday. Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 earned run average in 35 games (23 starts) to help Philadelphia to last year's World Series, but has been limited to only three starts this season due to a forearm injury.

"I hope to be a part of their future and help turn things around there," said Happ of the Astros. "It's nice to go to a team that wants you. I want to go down there and pitch well and see what happens."

NO SHAKEUP IN STORE FOR BREWERS

The Milwaukee Brewers were expected to be one of the central players during this year's deadline, with the team possessing two of the most desired hitters potentially available on the trade market. However, a lack of acceptable offers and a recent winning spree have forced the Brewers to rethink their position on first baseman Prince Fielder and right fielder Corey Hart.

General manager Doug Melvin had been entertaining calls on the two sluggers in recent weeks, but it appears no team was able or willing to meet Milwaukee's high asking price on both players. The Brewers are under no urgency to make a trade as well, with Fielder and Hart each not eligible for free agency until 2012.

Both will be in line for sizeable salary increases as arbitration eligibles next season, however, and with the Brewers not much of a factor in the NL Central race, it was believed the team would aggressively seek to move at least one of the two while their value was at its highest. Hart has had an especially strong season, batting .292 and ranking among the league leaders in home runs (22) and RBI (70).

Fielder, coming off a monster 46-homer, 141-RBI campaign in 2009, will be difficult for the budget-conscious Brewers to retain when he becomes a free agent following the 2011 season. However, the team could still look to trade the stocky cleanup hitter over the winter, and Milwaukee has yet to concede anything in the playoff race with two full months still left to play. Although the Brewers trail Cincinnati by nine games for the NL Central lead, they've gone 11-6 since July 9 and put together a five-game winning streak earlier this week.

"I don't anticipate anything happening," Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Thursday in regards to the trade deadline. "Things can change, but that's the way it looks now. I don't have to trade players."

BATS GO COLD AS CARDINALS LOSE LEAD

With Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse still a long ways from returning to the rotation, the St. Louis Cardinals were believed to be targeting a starting pitcher to add to their formidable trio of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. But considering how the defending world champions have struggled at the plate over the past week, finding a proven bat may become general manager John Mozeliak's highest priority at the deadline.

St. Louis has lost five of seven following a season-high eight-game winning streak from July 11-21 and has been shut out three times over that rough stretch. The Cardinals have mustered a total of just 19 runs during that time period, but nearly half of that amount came in an 8-7, 13-inning triumph over the New York Mets on Wednesday. St. Louis erupted for six first-inning runs against Mets standout Johan Santana in that game, then scored just one time over the next 11 frames before breaking through on Albert Pujols' go-ahead single in the 13th.

The Cardinals failed to build off that encouraging showing, though, mustering a mere four hits off knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in a 4-0 setback to New York on Thursday. The loss put St. Louis a half-game behind idle Cincinnati for first place in the NL Central.

St. Louis had been counting on a return to health from third baseman David Freese to add a needed spark to the lineup, but the talented rookie's recovery from a sprained right ankle was pushed back at least two more weeks after he dropped a weight on his left big toe while working out earlier this month. The 27-year-old, who's batting .296 with 36 RBI in 70 games, has been out since June 27 with the initial injury.

The Cardinals were rumored to be in the market for Baltimore third baseman Miguel Tejada, but the former American League MVP was traded to NL West- leading San Diego on Thursday.

FIRST-PLACE REDS BACK TO BASHING

The Cincinnati Reds' usually-potent offense also went through a brief sputtering phase earlier this week, as the current division leaders followed up a shutout loss to Houston on Sunday by managing only six hits in a 3-2 defeat at Milwaukee the next night. The Reds had little trouble getting on the board over the remainder of their series with the Brewers, however, with Dusty Baker's squad generating a combined 22 runs in taking the final two games.

Cincinnati battered Brewers pitching for 19 hits in Tuesday's 12-4 rout, with third baseman Scott Rolen leading the charge with a 4-for-4, three-RBI performance at the plate. The Reds got a late start in Wednesday's finale, as Milwaukee starter Chris Narveson began the game with five scoreless innings, but erupted for five runs in the sixth en route to a 10-2 triumph.

The two-day barrage added to Cincinnati's NL-leading total of 506 runs for the season. The Reds also top the Senior Circuit in batting average (.272) and trail only Milwaukee for the most home runs in the league.

Cincinnati's productive lineup isn't solely about the long ball, however, as the Milwaukee series proved. None of the Reds' 19 hits in Tuesday's game were homers, and Wednesday's sixth-inning outburst was aided by a surprise suicide- squeeze bunt from catcher Ryan Hanigan that brought in a run.

"You go into some ballparks and some lineups, and they're all home run threats," outfielder Jonny Gomes told the Reds' official site after Thursday's verdict. "But I think we're deeper than that. We've got some situational hitters. You saw the squeeze. The top of our lineup is going to get on, and we're going to run. We'll go from first to third and steal bags as well. I don't think we're just home run threats."

The Reds do boast the NL's current home run leader in first baseman Joey Votto, who belted his 26th round-tripper of the year in the finale. The 2010 All-Star went 7-for-11 with five runs scored over the final two games to raise his league-best average to .322.

CUBS' RAMIREZ FINALLY CATCHING FIRE

This 2010 season hasn't been a memorable one for either the Chicago Cubs or Aramis Ramirez, but the veteran third baseman is certainly showing signs of ending the year on a very positive note.

After enduring a horrendous slump over the season's first two-plus months, Ramirez has been raking all throughout July. In 22 games so far this month, the two-time All-Star is batting .326 (29-for-89) with nine home runs and 25 RBI.

The 32-year-old was swinging a particularly hot bat during a home series with Houston from July 19-21. Ramirez went 6-for-13 with four homers and a whopping 10 RBI over the three-games, which helped earn the right-handed slugger the NL's Player of the Week Award. Three of those long balls came during a wild 14-7 win on July 20, with Ramirez knocking in seven runs to help bring Chicago back from an early 7-1 deficit.

Ramirez's hot streak has raised his 2010 average to a still-subpar .224, more than 60 points lower than the .286 career mark he brought into this season. But considering he was hitting a woeful .162 with just 10 extra-base hits between April and May, it's clear the accomplished cleanup hitter has taken a big step in the right direction.

"I never went through something like that before, and I don't have an explanation for it," Ramirez recently told the Cubs' official site. "I guess it can happen to anybody. The only thing you can do is keep showing up and keep working and it will turn around."

Ramirez became the first Cubs player to be named NL Player of the Week since controversial pitcher Carlos Zambrano accomplished the feat for games played between September 8-14, 2008.

Zambrano, incidentally, is expected to rejoin the Cubs for this weekend's series at Colorado after serving a team-issued month-long suspension for a dugout meltdown in a June 25 game against the White Sox. The unpredictable right-hander will be used in a relief role at the outset of his reinstatement.


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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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