Big-time programs square off huge Week 2 matchups
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/08/2010 -
JoePa visits the Bear's house. The 'Canes blow into the Horseshoe for a rematch of the 2002 national championship game. Florida State's first big game post-Bowden takes place in Norman, Okla., a rematch of the 2000 national title game.
The second week of the college football season is so jammed pack with intriguing games that Brian Kelly's first foray into the Notre Dame-Michigan rivalry can't even crack the top three.
Hey, neither the Fighting Irish nor the Wolverines is ranked.
Joe Paterno, who broke Bear Bryant's record on the way to becoming the winningest coach in the history of major college football, brings Penn State to Tuscaloosa to face No. 1 Alabama.
The Nittany Lions and Crimson Tide routinely squared off in the 1970s and early '80s, when Bear Bryant was stalking Alabama's sideline. The Bear is gone now, but the Tide's stadium is named after him. Meanwhile, the 83-year-old Paterno has 395 victories.
Even if Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram (knee) can't play Saturday, beating Nick Saban's defending national champions would rank as one of Paterno's most surprising victories.
The last time Ohio State played Miami, it was the Buckeyes pulling off the upset.
Ohio State's 31-24 double-overtime victory in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl kept the Hurricanes from repeating as national champions and made the Buckeyes champs for the first time in more than three decades. It was also the night official Terry Porter became famous for throwing a flag for pass interference on Miami that is debated to this day.
``It's like everyone is making sure that we remember what happened,'' said current Miami quarterback Jacory Harris, who are the underdogs this time to the second-ranked Buckeyes.
Since Bob Stoops took over at Oklahoma in 1999, the Sooners have been perennial contenders. But they haven't won a national championship since Stoops' second season, when the Sooners beat Bobby Bowden's Seminoles 13-2 in the 2001 Orange Bowl.
That turned out to be Bowden's last shot at a national title. Florida State had some good teams after that, but Bowden's long run of excellence ended that night in Miami.
Stoops is still cranking out wins in Norman, but Bowden's time at Florida State is over. It's now Jimbo Fisher's job to return the 17th-ranked Seminoles to elite status and beating No. 10 Oklahoma would be a giant step in the right direction.
The picks:
Thursday
No. 21 Auburn (minus 2) at Mississippi State.
Matchup of spread offenses and promising QBs ... MISSISSIPPI STATE 31-24.
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Friday
No. 23 West Virginia (minus 13) at Marshall.
Mountaineers 9-0 in Friends of the Coal Bowl ... WEST VIRGINIA 31-14.
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Saturday
No. 18 Penn State (plus 11 1/2) at No. 1 Alabama.
Saban on one side, frosh QB playing first road game on the other ... ALABAMA 24-10.
No. 12 Miami (plus 9 1/2) at No. 2 Ohio State.
Can Jacory Harris avoid the big mistake? ... OHIO STATE 20-14.
Tennessee Tech (no line) at No. 4 TCU.
Tennessee Tech goes from Razorbacks to Horned Frogs ... TCU 50-10.
Wyoming (plus 29) at No. 5 Texas.
These Cowboys won't fare well in Texas ... TEXAS 45-14.
Idaho (plus 28 1/2) at No. 6 Nebraska.
Huskers redshirt freshman QB Taylor Martinez ran for 127 yards in debut ... NEBRASKA 42-10.
No. 7 Oregon (minus 13) at Tennessee.
After 72-point opener, Ducks get back star TB LaMichael James ... OREGON 35-20.
South Florida (plus 15 1/2) at No. 8 Florida.
Gators problems should be a snap to fix ... FLORIDA 28-10.
Iowa State (plus 13 1/2) at No. 9 Iowa.
Cyclones haven't scored TD vs. Hawkeyes in last 14 quarters ... IOWA 21-10.
No. 17 Florida State (plus 8 1/2) at No. 10 Oklahoma.
Sooners need to fix secondary quick with Christian Ponder coming to town ... OKLAHOMA 37-21.
San Jose State (plus 38) at No. 11 Wisconsin.
Badgers have won 14 straight home openers ... WISCONSIN 45-14.
James Madison (no line) at No. 13 Virginia Tech.
Hokies dealing with annual early season disappointment ... VIRGINIA TECH 35-17.
Louisiana-Monroe (plus 34) vs. No. 14 Arkansas at Little Rock, Ark.
It's officially a ULM home game ... ARKANSAS 48-21.
No. 15 Georgia Tech (minus 13 1/2) at Kansas.
It doesn't get any easier for Turner Gill at KU ... GEORGIA TECH 31-21.
Virginia (plus 19 1/2) at No. 16 Southern California.
Trojans are 12-6 against ACC teams ... USC 38-17.
No. 19 LSU (minus 10) at Vanderbilt.
Tigers have won six straight vs. Commodores ... LSU 28-14.
UNLV (plus 23 1/2) at No. 20 Utah.
Utes home winning streak is at 18 ... UTAH 45-16.
No. 22 Georgia (plus 2 1/2) at No. 24 South Carolina.
Bulldogs have won seven of last eight and four in a row at USC ... GEORGIA 24-21.
No. 25 Stanford (minus 6 1/2) at UCLA.
Bruins offense is a mess ... STANFORD 30-17.
Michigan (plus 3 1/2) at Notre Dame.
Wolverines coach Rich Rodriguez needs it more than Kelly ... MICHIGAN 27-21.
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Last week: 21-1 (straight); 9-5-1 (vs. points).Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.